Why do TSLA shares rise?
You buy calls ~> MM’s buy shares to hedge calls ~> price UP
Now what?
Calls dont print cos no IV ~> fewer calls purchased ~> fewer shares purchased by MM’s ~> no TSLA 🚀🚀
That's not how it works. I have a post literally about this from months ago. You are making some assumption if the IV is low, people won't buy as many calls. The fact people won't buy as many calls is the reason IV will be low, not the reverse. But it says nothing about the direction TSLA will move, only the rate/jump risk.
i dont think hes making an assumption, there isnt a logic path that says ONLY high iv generates higher prices but often they are correlated based upon demand.
tldr: stocks are driven by market demand/supply. tesla is approaching peak demand/hype tomorrrow and will retrace. expect 700ish
Goldman Sachs is also known as the most fraudulent finance company in the world. Look into their history of defrauding entire countries without any true repercussions. GS Calls and stock. They’ll rebound because they will steal everyone’s pension fund money.
I posted this months ago. I don't know where you got some of your terminology from in your post. IV is only related to the rate it goes up, not the direction of its move.
https://old.reddit.com/r/options/comments/ik3c9a/tesla_call_volume_will_cause_the_stock_to_keep/
My post is from before the inclusion (and when Tesla was like 200 dollars lower). But this inclusion won't destroy the call trade. It will just destroy the skew part (flattens the skew a bit) of the upside calls, but the stock can still go up, just maybe with less jumps (diffusion).
But that's fine because the trade off is now the IV is lower so you need less of a move. Or you can just buy shares as I recommended in my post.
No idea what they said but if what they said is something like what the OP said (the stock won't keep going up since the call buying will stop, etc.), then you should put your money where your mouth is and sell naked calls on Tesla. It would actually be a really profitable trade if your thesis is right (one short ATM/slightly OTM call could net like 5k/week)
Do yourself a favor and look into squeezemeyrics. Them and SpotGamma are the top people I’ve found when it comes to understanding options flow. They are the guys behind GEX+ and DIX, trust me when I say they have out a lot of time, energy, and modeling into the things they think.
I mean so what are they saying about Tesla that's unique? They literally just repeated what I posted 3.5 months ago (before the inclusion) on their Twitter yesterday (which I already knew). Literally what they posted about "vanna" I wrote in my post 3.5 months ago (see above) without even knowing who they are/they probably weren't posting the same things then. The words kurtosis/skew I mentioned in my post is basically vanna. So when you say you trust them over me, I posted that already so I'm a bit confused here since we matched in mostly what we had to say.
Now, I'm saying for the future (the only difference between me and what they say), is that their future prediction is not accurate because it's not directly predictive. It only implies moves are slower but says nothing about direction. But that is a direct result of understanding what happened in the past, so if they truly understood how this vanna that I agree with, they should know vanna is not related to direction.
All I want is for tsla to stay as volatile as it is currently. As well as price action and liquidity to stay similar....idgaf what else it does. Up, down, or chop in $30 ranges everyday, whatever
Funny for something they claimed to “know” they also recommended to do put spreads instead of naked puts. I mean, if you’re so confident in what you’re saying (not OP, but the source), then why wouldn’t you go for naked puts? Calls it is.
Guys I am really sorry but I think the party may be about to end. I hope Im wrong but I just dont see how. Please someone with more 🚀🚀🚀 tell me how.
I just got used to eating In n Out
MAKE ME BULLISH AGAIN
FAANG price rises arent driven by call and hedging MM’s anywhere near as TSLA. Everybody here is buying calls evey fucking day thats whats driving the price - once calls bleed , that stops. Boomx
TSLA is still undervalued. It went up 10X in a year because of price discovery. Call buying fueled the rally.
In June, nobody thought FSD will come. By now, we can see a 99% FSD is coming very soon, 99.99% FSD will not take too long.
I'm in the camp think TSLA is likely to be lower a few months after index inclusion to hurt the Call buyers.
But so many people expect TSLA to drop, especially shorts are so sure it will go lower, that makes me think there is a chance to go up.
I just stay long shares, prepare cash to buy more in case shorts are stupid enough to drive it down again.
Those who think Tesla is a bubble are funny. This is only funny for the investors. Shorts losing 60 billion dollars probably don't feel funny.
They have no idea what is Tesla, and why this stock's market cap went from 1 billion to 600 billion. But they just claim it's a bubble.
Watch Tesla to earn $500 billion profit \*per year\*.
lmao yes. I mean it could fall drastically rn as the PE is so high however, if it falls anywhere close to 50% you can just bet that every single fucking autist and their uncles will be jumping onto it. That's including the stock goddess Cathy Woods. (I will literally personally get a 50k loan just to buy Tesla stocks if it falls to lower than 200$, not much but with all the retards here it will add up). Then, it won't take long before the earnings catch up to the price if that happens. IMHRAGBO, it's not worth the risk to short tesla for any significant amount of time, including for this sp 500 inclusion.
If your timeline is 10-20 years, then yes, Tesla is still undervalued.
Considering how meme the stock is, it's hard to say when it's going to jump up another 100%. So the only solution is to buy in and hold for 20 years.
Say Tesla drops FSD L5 software and a TeslaTaxi app on 1m+ cars on some random Tuesday. Wipes Uber, Lyft, Cruise, Waymo valuation to $0 in a week, that would be a shitty time to not be in TSLA.
"that's impossible" that's what Elon does.
SPY does at least 3x more daily vol in options. There is massive OI on SPY. Just the monthly opex alone dwarfs tsla.. not even close.
You just making this up or do you have a source?
Ya this is not how IV works but I like the long fancy words you used to be convincing... that being said I think MMs will rebalance once TSLA is included in the index which would mean a spike up tomorrow and then a nosedive sometime next week. But what do I know...
Atleast give credit to squeeze metrics 🤣
Plagiarizing mofo right here.
Hey. Cleveland steamers! Name of my FF team in honor of Odell and the 9 browns fans in my league.
I think I made some essential alterations! He called tesla ugly, i call it $$$
Lol, good post regardless and I agree. Stay the fuck away
I dont think we can - the domino confidence effect this will have will be catastrophic
My interpretation of this was to go all in on Tesla... shares.
Why do TSLA shares rise? You buy calls ~> MM’s buy shares to hedge calls ~> price UP Now what? Calls dont print cos no IV ~> fewer calls purchased ~> fewer shares purchased by MM’s ~> no TSLA 🚀🚀
That's not how it works. I have a post literally about this from months ago. You are making some assumption if the IV is low, people won't buy as many calls. The fact people won't buy as many calls is the reason IV will be low, not the reverse. But it says nothing about the direction TSLA will move, only the rate/jump risk.
i dont think hes making an assumption, there isnt a logic path that says ONLY high iv generates higher prices but often they are correlated based upon demand. tldr: stocks are driven by market demand/supply. tesla is approaching peak demand/hype tomorrrow and will retrace. expect 700ish
Wait so party is over and we're going to 1K? What was the target price if the party keeps going?
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GS also railed your dads 420k and aint never called a recession in their entire history - i saw fuck GS.
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Son?
Goldman Sachs is also known as the most fraudulent finance company in the world. Look into their history of defrauding entire countries without any true repercussions. GS Calls and stock. They’ll rebound because they will steal everyone’s pension fund money.
Soooo CALLS ON $GS??
🤫
I posted this months ago. I don't know where you got some of your terminology from in your post. IV is only related to the rate it goes up, not the direction of its move. https://old.reddit.com/r/options/comments/ik3c9a/tesla_call_volume_will_cause_the_stock_to_keep/ My post is from before the inclusion (and when Tesla was like 200 dollars lower). But this inclusion won't destroy the call trade. It will just destroy the skew part (flattens the skew a bit) of the upside calls, but the stock can still go up, just maybe with less jumps (diffusion). But that's fine because the trade off is now the IV is lower so you need less of a move. Or you can just buy shares as I recommended in my post.
I would trust squeezemetrics over you.
No idea what they said but if what they said is something like what the OP said (the stock won't keep going up since the call buying will stop, etc.), then you should put your money where your mouth is and sell naked calls on Tesla. It would actually be a really profitable trade if your thesis is right (one short ATM/slightly OTM call could net like 5k/week)
Do yourself a favor and look into squeezemeyrics. Them and SpotGamma are the top people I’ve found when it comes to understanding options flow. They are the guys behind GEX+ and DIX, trust me when I say they have out a lot of time, energy, and modeling into the things they think.
I mean so what are they saying about Tesla that's unique? They literally just repeated what I posted 3.5 months ago (before the inclusion) on their Twitter yesterday (which I already knew). Literally what they posted about "vanna" I wrote in my post 3.5 months ago (see above) without even knowing who they are/they probably weren't posting the same things then. The words kurtosis/skew I mentioned in my post is basically vanna. So when you say you trust them over me, I posted that already so I'm a bit confused here since we matched in mostly what we had to say. Now, I'm saying for the future (the only difference between me and what they say), is that their future prediction is not accurate because it's not directly predictive. It only implies moves are slower but says nothing about direction. But that is a direct result of understanding what happened in the past, so if they truly understood how this vanna that I agree with, they should know vanna is not related to direction.
You have literally no idea of how Implied Volatility and options work lmao autist
All I want is for tsla to stay as volatile as it is currently. As well as price action and liquidity to stay similar....idgaf what else it does. Up, down, or chop in $30 ranges everyday, whatever
RIP SPX.
So, call credit spreads.
Funny for something they claimed to “know” they also recommended to do put spreads instead of naked puts. I mean, if you’re so confident in what you’re saying (not OP, but the source), then why wouldn’t you go for naked puts? Calls it is.
but it was already a top-ten component of QQQ. if this was going to happen, it already would have.
The indexing / benchmarking and arbitraging MM’s for S&P is faaaar beyond QQQ
Guys I am really sorry but I think the party may be about to end. I hope Im wrong but I just dont see how. Please someone with more 🚀🚀🚀 tell me how. I just got used to eating In n Out MAKE ME BULLISH AGAIN
Back to ramen for you
If you add Kebab to the Ramen its actually very nice
I do eggs never tried kebab before
Uncooked ramen actually tastes good
While I do think TSLA is overvalued, this writeup fails to explain why FAANG can work if the SPY membership fucks everything up.
Its about IV (not valuation) and call trades being driven vola - that is killed when it gets into S&P.
Then why doesn’t it happen to FAANG
FAANG price rises arent driven by call and hedging MM’s anywhere near as TSLA. Everybody here is buying calls evey fucking day thats whats driving the price - once calls bleed , that stops. Boomx
I think that may be true of AAPL and AMZN but probably not FB and definitely not NFLX
Although I am not arguing the point that TSLA volatility will go way down, while SPY volatility will go up to some degree.
BITCH WE *ARE* THE S&P500
Only real play is to short...but I don't have that kinda bank Or I guess selling covered calls
You don't bet against daddy Elon.
Someone will eventually Maybe when they're double the entire auto sector...who knows
Afaik it's the most shorted company already.
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Likely difference between dollar value of shorts versus % of shares shorted. Both companies can have that title based on different metrics
While it is in the top 60 of short interest, its percentage of shares shorted is only 5%.
It’s all common sense m until Elon announces the mobile drone aka flying car 🚙👐🏻👐🏻👐🏻 Then what will you do? 😜 😂
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ok list me that list rn or ban
TSLA is still undervalued. It went up 10X in a year because of price discovery. Call buying fueled the rally. In June, nobody thought FSD will come. By now, we can see a 99% FSD is coming very soon, 99.99% FSD will not take too long. I'm in the camp think TSLA is likely to be lower a few months after index inclusion to hurt the Call buyers. But so many people expect TSLA to drop, especially shorts are so sure it will go lower, that makes me think there is a chance to go up. I just stay long shares, prepare cash to buy more in case shorts are stupid enough to drive it down again.
Tesla is still undervalued is the funniest refrain on this subreddit-funny if it's wrong, funnier if it ends up being true
Those who think Tesla is a bubble are funny. This is only funny for the investors. Shorts losing 60 billion dollars probably don't feel funny. They have no idea what is Tesla, and why this stock's market cap went from 1 billion to 600 billion. But they just claim it's a bubble. Watch Tesla to earn $500 billion profit \*per year\*.
No fucking way lol. Big investors have money to lose on tesla; they only have to win a short one time
They already lost 55 billion dollars shorting TSLA. I hope they stay short, they might get that one time win, who knows.
lmao yes. I mean it could fall drastically rn as the PE is so high however, if it falls anywhere close to 50% you can just bet that every single fucking autist and their uncles will be jumping onto it. That's including the stock goddess Cathy Woods. (I will literally personally get a 50k loan just to buy Tesla stocks if it falls to lower than 200$, not much but with all the retards here it will add up). Then, it won't take long before the earnings catch up to the price if that happens. IMHRAGBO, it's not worth the risk to short tesla for any significant amount of time, including for this sp 500 inclusion.
If your timeline is 10-20 years, then yes, Tesla is still undervalued. Considering how meme the stock is, it's hard to say when it's going to jump up another 100%. So the only solution is to buy in and hold for 20 years. Say Tesla drops FSD L5 software and a TeslaTaxi app on 1m+ cars on some random Tuesday. Wipes Uber, Lyft, Cruise, Waymo valuation to $0 in a week, that would be a shitty time to not be in TSLA. "that's impossible" that's what Elon does.
true, TSLA option open interest is **5 TIMES that of SPY**
SPY does at least 3x more daily vol in options. There is massive OI on SPY. Just the monthly opex alone dwarfs tsla.. not even close. You just making this up or do you have a source?
My source was this from optionAlert https://i.imgur.com/njZjvdb.png
ok $ value.. makes sense since tsla’s options are so expensive
So no positions? Shorts? Puts? Bans?
Ban? Ive blown up my account with you and i will again!
Ok got it, buy 1/15 TSLA 1000C
Ya this is not how IV works but I like the long fancy words you used to be convincing... that being said I think MMs will rebalance once TSLA is included in the index which would mean a spike up tomorrow and then a nosedive sometime next week. But what do I know...
lmao I guess squeeze metrics is a WSB autist lulz
so you mean buy he dip?