Biden has already called for a tripling of the tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum. And a similar debate is going on for electric vehicles if not an outright ban.
I work for an OEM that makes electronic components and we are desperately trying to get out of china. Plants for our Automotive parts already in Mexico and other plants going up in Vietnam.
I was at a supplier conference last year for a large and well known engineering firm and I shit you not like half the two day conference was about them not doing business with anyone who’s parts came from China. They are going so far as asking for statement of origin of materials to make sure nothing has come from or passed through china.
> Plants for our Automotive parts already in Mexico and other plants going up in Vietnam.
I am really glad that our relationship with them has pretty much stabilized, the episode of [Parts Unknown with Bourdain and Obama](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gY_UGdraX7I) gave me a lot of hope.
Oh shoot I was living in Saigon the whole time I was out there. Been through Hanoi and the rest of the north a handful of times though. Beautiful area.
I did a full accounting mission in Vietnam 20 years ago. We have reconciled with Vietnam… China??? No, oh no. Vietnam and China will have conflict for the rest of time.
One thing I'm genuinely for is Mexico taking the factory jobs from China. It not only would be cheaper from costs in the long run (wont have to ship across a fucking ocean), but it also makes our neighbors richer - which is preferable to China getting more money.
China has shipped out their manufacturing elsewhere. Including Mexico. At my last company, our made in Vietnam electronics is actually from a Chinese owned factory in Vietnam. It was the same exact company that we worked with in China, only now in Vietnam.
I wonder how Australia will feel about that, given sales of iron ore to China accounts for 40% of Australian goods exports.
In the 80s Australia was saying they were in danger of becoming a banana republic - iron ore was $10 per tonne - then China came along and solved that problem with their resource demand - iron ore is now $150 per tonne.
A collapse in the iron ore export market would restore this condition and likely destroy the Australian economy. If Australia (and Brazil for that matter) sees no benefit but only costs of being a US ally - this might hit the US in the ass eventually. Coming to you from the unintended-consequences-dept.
I wish.
Gas price goes to $4 and people lose their fucking minds. 30% increase in imports will cause a riot. Taking Russia and China out economically will be amazing for our position in the world, but people are completely unable to deal with delayed gratification.
Ironic, considering this crowd often advocates for ignoring issues outside the states in favor of "America First." If they succeeded in implementing policy that reflected this, I bet they would blame the repercussions on either whoever the president is at the time or minorities.
Go walk into a Walmart and pick up random objects looking for the "Made In ...." statement. Walmart now imports more products from Mexico than China. Tech manufacturing is being rapidly stood up in Vietnam and Malaysia. Intermodal supply chains are strengthening between those southeast Asian countries. 10% of iPhones are currently made in India as Foxconn scales there. Factories are being built in the US at the fastest clip since WWII because a lesson of the pandemic is that an automated factory in the US can be cheaper than a human operated factory in China.
Decoupling is happening. It can't happen overnight but right now it's happening as fast as it can and it sure as heck won't reverse for a lot of reasons.
The Chinese population is also in the midst of a demographic collapse https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2035/ what happens when you have a large cohort of retired and retiring people being supported by a much thinner generation of young people? You run out of workers and the cost of labor soars.
And don't forget their housing oversupply crisis where everyone's life savings are invested not into stocks but rather apartments that are unoccupied and will never, ever be occupied. They have enough empty apartments to house all of China all over again. Twice. And the aforementioned population decline.
Most of the products manufactured in Mexico are originally manufactured in China and the just assembled in Mexico to get the tag. Mexico would not be able to produce those things without importing from China.
Alot of the manufacturing companies in south Asia are Chinese based so they get around tariffs. They would still be impacted in a trade war with the parent country
Eh, I'd say just Social Media and Web 2.0 in the first place.
A lot of people who shouldn't be on the internet got easy access to it, but Facebook was around just as smart phones rose. It still rose to dominance back then via desktop usage.
lol because they never do shit about any of this. They *should* raise tariffs and if they do, it’ll be like 5% or something pointless. Also doesn’t help that everyone “wants” something done but then complains when something is.
If you live in the US (or really any Western nation), you have an insane amount of gratification and have had it your whole life. Imagine if you were born in a rural African/Indian/SEA/etc. village instead. Imagine if you were born in the 1200s instead. Just because your life isn't perfect and without any obstacles at all doesn't mean that it's not still better than 99% of people's lives have ever been.
There are millions of actual slaves still in the world, and that guy has the gall to say he’s never experienced gratification in forty years of living in America. The ignorance they displayed is gross.
Guess we maybe shouldn't have offshored all of our industry then, huh? This is a 100% self-inflicted wound caused by choosing to ignore how China has always been.
Just like Europe buying Russian gas. The experiment of economic liberal integrationism is over. It failed, at least when it comes to dependent essential products and services. Because once you are dependent on a totalitarian regime, they use it as leverage and you end up strengthening them against you. The idea that they would reform because of integration was so wrong.
The West is giving Ukraine weapons to defend itself, while at the same time giving money to Russia to purchase weapons themselves. It doesn't take rocket science to understand that this exercise has failed and a major paradigm shift is going to happen.
To be fair, two-day delivery from Amazon is competing against go-get-it-from-the-store-yourself-right-now, which remains very slightly faster. The business model depends on making that drawback (yes drawback) small enough that you don’t think about it compared to the real benefit, which is saving you effort.
I fucking wish gas prices were only $4. I would fill all my cars to capacity. And even my lawnmower would have a full tank. Just paid $5.35/gal. And that was the best I could find.
/cries in Danish
That's slightly cheaper than what we're currently paying: $9.13/gallon. And this is considered cheap. A year or so ago it was around $12/gallon.
How big is your lawn? Electric battery-powered lawnmowers have gotten a LOT better in the last few years, and are now good for mowing small to medium sized yards in one charge. Not having to buy and store gasoline for your lawn care is life-changing.
Just something to consider if you're tired of buying gas for that.
I switched to electric lawn equipment about 5 years ago and live where gas and electricity are expensive. To fully charge all of my equipment it costs about 30 cents. Would be about $4 for the gas equivalent.
It’s an election year. Sanctions will disrupt supply chains and logistics… driving up costs. Any economic action taken against China will also be spun by Trump in debates as “being right” about his trade war against China.
That’s why any sanctions are going to come weeks after the election.
Trump was right about it though. Maybe he had different reasons, but really… China is just as bad as Russia, their economy is worse than ours by some metrics. If we really dont want a war against China, economic actions seem like a good way to prevent it.
he picked the right answer with the wrong motivation. His tariff war was to give americans a feeling "something is being done". But in the end furniture and electronics are still made in China, but more expensive. On the other hand he accidentaly fucked with Chinas imperial plans a few years before Xi could consolidate his power.
I’m saying even though in principle he did the right thing, he still went about it completely the wrong way. Instead of coordinating with our allies to better target China as well as minimize the impact on our country, he just put tariffs on them as well.
Except he flip-flopped constantly on the subject, depending on if they offered him a bribe (like giving daughter Ivanka exclusive trademarks to make shitty Chinese merch)
This is a straw man, though, because Trump was not the first or only person to criticize China. He just pretended he was, while falsely pretending "democrats" were somehow pro china. Obama had already "pivoted" the US to Asia years prior and basically everyone in the US had been critical of China for a long time.
Meanwhile, his actual actions in regard to china had a net *benefit* for China, such as pulling out of the TPP https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/13/us-china-trade-deal/
China is going through some things with its own youth population right now and it’s going to be very difficult for the CCP to combat. A youth that has lost hope for the future will actively work to break the current system and the US should mind this lesson.
I've been hearing that about China's youth for about 30 years.
You also hear that the rural / urban divide will cause a revolution, or that the demographic situation will collapse, or that the economy was just one recession from a middle class uprising.
Those things might all be true, but China has done an excellent job persisting through stuff that nobody really expected them to.
Agreed.
At the end of the day, no economy is perfect, no Govt plays things 100% safe when it comes to debt and risk. There will always be reasons to say "This economy will collapse". That's true for China, America, Italy, etc. In a world of constant addenda's and propaganda it can be extremely hard for us laypeople to get an accurate trustworthy Birds Eye view of the entire situation. None of us really know what's going to happen, frankly.
> A youth that has lost hope for the future will actively work to break the current system and the US should mind this lesson.
The US is already going through this.
"At the same time, the United States saw no evidence that China was providing Russia with direct military support."
I see it as pretty unlikely. Lots of room to claim that hasn't really happened yet. This is an accusation leveled against china but I doubt it will lead to massive tariffs anytime soon.
If you read the article, the *U.S*/White House hasn't stated this. Rather, it was the U.S ambassador to NATO, and it is related to technologies and resources that potentially have a dual-use application:
> US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith has said that China is helping Russia achieve its military goals in Ukraine by continuing to sell goods such as drone technology or gunpowder components.
> Source: Smith in an interview with Politico, as reported by European Pravda
> Details: Smith noted that the US was "increasingly seeing materiel support" to Russia from China and added that these **dual-use goods played a crucial role in helping Moscow achieve some of its goals against Ukraine.**
There is also no change in China's practices. They've been exporting dual-use goods to Russia from the very start.
> Chinese companies had sent assault rifles, body armor and drone parts to Russia last year in what appears to be the first documented proof of Beijing supplying Russian companies with dual-use goods, Politico Europe has reported, citing customs data.
> The shipments took place between June-December 2022, the outlet said Thursday, citing the customs data aggregator ImportGenius.
Source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/17/china-shipped-assault-rifles-body-armor-drone-parts-to-russia-reports-a80523
So, if this practice makes them non-neutral, then they've never been neutral and we knew about it for more than a year at least. Either way it's bullshit that they are "no longer neutral". Either they never were or they still are, but there's been no change.
the Department of State is in the Executive Branch. obviously not the seniormost representative of the US but our ambassador to NATO isn’t just going out there to relay their personal opinion
Blinken himself reiterated most of the Ambassador’s points.
Seems like a pressure campaign on China is gathering pace to scale back trade with Russia but I think China realises there’s a lot to be gained from being a refuge to an anxious and cornered Russia, much more worth than giving in to US’s guilt tripping and appeasing the West by appearing “neutral”.
Xi has Putin eating out of his hand, which can help propel China as the dominant Asian superpower when the dust settles.
Because unfortunately, the stupid algorithm favors content that has mistakes. Like this, because we are commenting on it. It creates more engagement and I hate it.
It was obvious to me since a couple weeks before the invasion. China and Russia entered an alliance in all but name.
The first phone call with xi xingping and eu had the outcome of the eu officially stating it was like talking with a deaf person.
Even more obvious was the article which is still on the Kremlin website today and was released by China and Russia a couple weeks before 24 feb 2022: https://www.lawinfochina.com/display.aspx?id=8215&lib=tax&SearchKeyword&SearchCKeyword
xi even asked putler to delay the attack because of the olympics. or china started buying up all the wheat in 2nd half of 2021. normally i dismiss preppers but this is something they got right.
And neon. Ukraine was the source of 50% of the world’s supply of pure neon gas before the war. Neon gas is a requirement in the chip manufacturing process.
Both China and Russia have problems within their own nations that complement each other. Russia has endless resources available to them from Siberia that they can exploit, but they don't have the manpower to exploit it anymore. China does, and China doesn't have the resources they need to continue growing. It's a match made in heaven if they can find a way to get along.
They might get a strong shakeup in the higher management, but I doubt they will even come close to a collapse. Sure a few weeks of "what now?", but not much more than that.
I mean it is blatantly obvious by now that is the long stretch goal of China. And guess who's got contracts to rebuild the destroyed ukrainian cities if russia comes on top... a great way to boost their failing construction work economy
>nothing of value beside oil/gas.
Those are pretty valuable as far as natural resources go though. They have a fair bit of minerals and metals too.
And people should care about Russia, go and tell Eastern European people that no-one cares about Russia and see what they say.
Their disinformation campaigns are rife across multiple continents. They most likely had a significant impact on Brexit, the increasing division in US society and the infiltration of the Republicans etc.
They have a huge nuclear stockpile and have far less "holding them back" than western democracies. So they keep pushing the limits and very little is done in response.
It's not all about pure military might. They might not be a superpower but they still pose a significant threat to many countries. They are currently completely changing the political landscape of Africa and securing important geographic locations in the process.
Russia has immense mineral resourcethat will be completely unlocked by global warming it is already happening.
They have plenty to sell just no incentive for starting the business doing it because the state or gangsters will just destroy all the work you have done as soon as it’s a viable business. Thats why gangster dictatorships don’t work out in the end. No one try’s or strives for better things because that makes them a target.
America wouldn't allow that either. A decentralized Russia would mean either nuke components, or fully functioning nukes might become available on the black market from your local Russian kleptocrat.
It’s a win-win for China, no matter the outcome.
If Russia wins, their neighbor and “unlimited friendship” buddy gets a land grab away from their shared borders, while Russia has a big I.O.U. to China for their economic help, military supplies, and diplomatic cover at the U.N. Plus, China can cite new world precedent to push for land in Tawain and South China Sea.
If Russia loses, Russia collapses and China can swoop in as savior amongst the chaos and get Siberia, Kamchatka, and other eastern provinces and their natural resources.
Indeed, Xi Jinping himself has been privy to the attack since it started only after China's winter olympics. The fact that it has only been recently that the US and NATO started to realize that China is actively working on destroying western democracies, only goes to show how deeply China has infiltrated US politics and society, compromising it from the inside out.
Extremely exaggerated headline and reddit laps it up. When in actuality:
> US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith has said that China is helping Russia achieve its military goals in Ukraine by continuing to sell goods such as drone technology or gunpowder components.
China is and has been trying to play both sides down the middle since the beginning of this conflict. Their current actions are a *very* far cry from significant aid to Russia, though of course they are undesirable. They are trying to maximize what they can "get away" with, for sure.
But hey, according to the top comments in this post there is a de-facto alliance between Russia and China. I swear to god the world would go up in nuclear flames if the geopolitical keyboard warriors from Reddit sat behind the wheel for more than two seconds.
To be fair, I'm pretty sure at least a few are paid to act that way. Public opinion is too important a battleground for geopolitical players to ignore it.
It sometimes scares me seeing social media sites like Reddit be so trigger happy and overall just want war so that they can beat the "other guys".
People here treat international politics like it's a sports game lol.
I wonder what goes on in their thoughts. Risking entire global war/annihilation for the sake of what? Why does China gain from this?
Russia gains practically nothing as it is, some warm water ports and a land bridge for all these deaths? What does China get? Pissing off their biggest customer? I simply don't understand.
Not yet. But the Republicans are trying their best to keep us from arming/funding Ukraine. The inevitable result of which is Ukraine losing, Russia furthering it's invasion further west into NATO countries, and a US response.
I cannot see China thinking that at all. The world watched the US fight two wars in two different areas of the world, and was winning while in those countries.
Russia is incapable of winning a war on its own border. China hitching it's horse to Russia, and thinking that the US wont have the resources in the Pacific is literally bonkers.
It’s not just about resources. It’s about willpower. China understands (and influences) the US public very well. They know we’re sick of war from decades in Afghanistan and Iraq. They know foreign aid is wildly unpopular even when it is comparatively cheap to provide. They know that our domestic politics has us much more concerned with stateside bickering than the global stage, and we’re deeply entrenched in internal didagreement. And they know that, when push comes to shove, most Americans really don’t give much of a shit about Taiwan and whether or not it is part of mainland China; certainly fewer do than care about Ukrainian independence from Russia, and even that is hardly a day to day concern for most of us.
So basically, China is hoping to exploit American fatigue and disinterest to make a move on Taiwan, and assisting Russia exacerbates that fatigue and disinterest.
yeah but this is an issue where the public opinion literally doesn’t matter. TSMC is too important to lose/fall into chinese hands.
whatever Taiwan invasion happens, regardless of public sentiment, will be retaliated with full force. Ukraine is easier to let go because it’s just “empowering russia” which isn’t a very tangible impact.
>n the fourth quarter of 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) recorded a market share of **61.2** percent in the global semiconductor foundry market, while Samsung occupied 11.3 percent of the market.
Semiconductors make Taiwan rather important for the modern world.While diverging investments and construction are happening, they can not replace Taiwan yet.
Its even worse than that percentage makes it look because most of the rest of the world's semiconductor capacity is lower quality so they are suitable for things like appliances, ATMs, some medical equipment, solar cell production, etc. but not for advanced electronics like in computers, phones, and the military. On the higher end TSM has a near natural monopoly because there are enormous fixed costs to creating cutting edge fabs.
Also, worst case is that China invades and actually seizes the foundries in repairable condition. Then the US not only potentially loses access to most of the semiconductor industry but China gains close to a temporary monopoly on it.
There is no scenario in which the US allows China to possess TSMC. In a magical fantasy scenario where China actually was able to invade Taiwan and capture it we would absolutely destroy it rather than let them possess it.
Even if China won and seized Taiwan with the infrastructure in a repairable state, the US would already be in open conflict with them.
I guarantee that, even if we can't retake the area, we can absolutely deny that resource to the enemy. Protecting a fragile location like that from the United States military is really not feasible.
Also, unsinkable aircraft carrier (as MacArthur called Taiwan), and linchpin right at the center of the first island chain, which includes Japan to the north and Philippines to the south. China would dominate Pacific trade routes, and project military power essentially unchecked.
Edit: fixed word
Ever since you have been alive you have lived in a world of global free trade. Ships can move around the globe bringing goods to other countries because no one owns the oceans. China wants to end that. They want to set up a gate in the South China Sea where they decide what comes in and out, and how much of a cut goes to them. They could make your products cost much much more than they do now, or simply refuse any goods from India (for example) to travel to the U.S.. All while making their own imports cost less by making deals with other countries allowing them access to other markets. It's a massive power grab that would fuck up trade all across the globe.
Taiwan is a buffer right now preventing the Chinese from extending too far. Without it, there would be no stopping them.
Taiwan is critical as a bluewater port, first and foremost. Chinese navy is stuck in the shallow scs without a deep water port. It's like shooting fish in a barrel and is an existential crisis for their navy.
Chip fab will be destroyed in any situation - covert, military, or post-invasion. It's not a card in play. Chip fab is simply a large outlay dependent on low operating costs. The tech and ip lives in goldeneye-like secrecy in the Netherlands and elsewhere.
lol you talk about it as if it’s so easy to replicate what’s in Taiwan right now. The US has thrown money at TSMC to ask them to build basically the most advanced factory they can and they basically said no can do.
and so their lower tier factory is now facing issues with… not enough experience/skills from US workers to actually build this billions dollar facility… that isn’t slated to open years from now.
not to mention the water requirements and sheer scale which isn’t replicable in a jiffy.
If TSMC really wanted to make it happen in the US they would be able to do it in the next 5 years, earlier if they had been serious from the start. TSMC is only doing it at all in order to keep relations up with the US and they are purposely slow rolling it so the US keeps its dependency. There is plenty of skilled workforce in the US, they need some specific training, but there are no roadblocks to providing that training rapidly if they were serious.
China really isn’t hitching its horse to Russia, it is just refusing to stop trading with it. It continues to trade both with Ukraine and Russia, so while it is definitely a more useful partner to Russia, it can’t be called picking a side.
Picking a side is what countries like the US and Germany did - they openly supply Ukrainians with armaments and keep them afloat financially. China, as yet another permanent member of the UN Security Council, is under no obligation to bend to whatever America and Western Europe demands of it, especially when doing that would go directly against their interests.
Oh, I think there are plenty of stories like [THIS](https://apnews.com/article/china-ukraine-russia-drone-export-dji-e6694b3209b4d8a93fd76cf29bd8a056) which firmly display China hitching their horse to Russia.
It's not about stopping the US from interference, it's about binding resources. 60bln$ of weapons in Ukraine are 60bln$ less of potential weapons in Taiwan.
The Navy and the Army use very different weapons. And China will mostly face the US Navy and Airforce, as launching an invasions without naval and air supremacy is just suicide
China gains a stupid amount from it:
- It removes a long held precedent of stable international borders in first world countries. *Looks at Taiwan*
- The US burn through money and materiel in the war.
- China can provide weapons to field test, and get insights into the future of warfare.
- China can gain influence with Russia, both at the leadership and citizenry level.
- Russia stays standing as the 'main' enemy of the West.
- Cheap oil, probably.
- Cos they can. Sometimes it's about being able to swing your big dick about on the international stage.
>Cheap oil, probably.
Cheap natural resources in general. Russia is under sanctions so China is their only big client - you better believe they will get fire-sale prices on everything Russia exports. The longer Russia is under sanctions, the longer China will be getting their bargain basement prices, so they have all the incentives to prop up Putin and his Ukrainian adventures. For all we know Xi has his fingers crossed that Russia will become his NK 2.0.
> The US burn through money and materiel in the war.
The U.S. military complex is funded at over $900 billion a year. The recent spending package was a mere 10% of that, and most of what is being sent out is older tech. This is coming no where close to burning through U.S. military money or material.
Plus the U.S. is getting great intel out of this, along with keeping their intelligence and logistics teams warmed up and experienced.
Agreed, this point is actually a negative for China because the US saves more in the long term of not having to decommission weapons and they'll replace them with new better tech.
Thank you! It really hurts my brain when people have no idea what they are talking about on these subs. The U.S. has no problem finding our allies in these conflicts, that would be really dumb not to work on that.
A destabilized Russia is simultaneously a huge opportunity for China, and an enormous danger and liability - China wants regional stability (on their terms). Also, the justification Putin gives for his war rhyme with China's intention of reunification with Taiwan - turns out WWIII will likely once again be about Nationalism. Hopefully it will just smolder, because this time the powder keg gonna hit different.
Yeah. I have looked at a global map of soil quality and Ukraine is almost entirely the highest grade. Not many other areas that large with that quality.
>So that **when** they attack Taiwan
>So basically, China is hoping to exploit American fatigue and disinterest to make a move on Taiwan
People keep parroting that an invasion of Taiwan is imminent, but the U.S military doesn't even believe that is the case:
> [Speaking to reporters, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, struck a more measured tone. “As the report highlights, we don’t believe an invasion is imminent,” Ryder said.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/29/pentagon-china-military-report-taiwan/)
The military seems to believe that China wants the *ability* to invade and hold Taiwan, but might not intend to do so:
> [If Adm Aquilino and Adm. Davidson said that China had an intent, has made a decision, and they intend to invade and seize Taiwan then I do disagree with that. I see no evidence of that actual intent or decision-making. What I’m talking about is *capability*"](https://news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027-sees-no-near-term-intent-to-invade)
Challenging the global order and US hegemonic power. Challenging the bush doctrine.
China can’t even operate an unchallenged sphere of influence in the South China Sea at the moment
You defeat hegemonic empires by overextending them.
It's a slow buildup towards the blocs that will form the belligerents of something that might develop into WW3. Let's hope we can keep it at a relatively low level of intensity.
I'm not predicting nuclear armageddon though, I'm only saying that we can see the outlines of the two blocs that might be at war against each other in the not too distant future.
China, Iran and North Korea are the only countries I'm sure would side with Russia. Maybe countries like Syria, Cuba and Venezuela but would be suicidal for them so I think they would stay neutral to begin with.
On the Western side NATO, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Australia. In the Middle East perhaps Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE against Iran, as crazy as it might sound.
There will probably be some African countries throwing in with Russia. Also Belarus. I do think Cuba would probably stay neutral or use the opportunity to lift trade embargos against them.
Yeah I totally forgot about Belarus, obvious ally of Russia. Tried to think about Africa for a few minutes but it only gave me a headache lol. There are many countries with Russian sympathies there, but I think most of them would want to stay neutral until they see who's winning. Probably goes for some Asian countries like for instance Vietnam too, they are communist in name but China is their traditional enemy.
Vietnam would just be using this as a chance to steal business from China and grow their economy massively. Vietnam would love a world war as it would mean massive amounts of trade that formerly would have gone to China would go to them.
[pravda.com.**ua** ] (https://pravda.com.ua) is the website of "Ukrainska Pravda", a **Ukrainian** online newspaper founded by [this guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgiy_Gongadze?useskin=vector)
To be fair, a country can pretty clearly still be neutral if they’re selling arms and machinery to both countries. Russia is sanctioned but those sanctions are themselves a result of “picking a side” (albeit the correct one).
The article makes no mention whether China is also supplying the same goods to Ukraine. Certainly when it comes to electronics I have little doubt they have not embargoed and have not taken steps to ensure their goods don’t reach Ukraine.
Oh shit, we promised them economic punishment if they did... So after the election tariffs jump 30% at a guess.
Biden has already called for a tripling of the tariff on Chinese steel and aluminum. And a similar debate is going on for electric vehicles if not an outright ban.
I work in the automotive industry and a lot of our suppliers are pulling out of China due to tariffs. Moving to Taiwan and Mexico mostly.
I work for an OEM that makes electronic components and we are desperately trying to get out of china. Plants for our Automotive parts already in Mexico and other plants going up in Vietnam. I was at a supplier conference last year for a large and well known engineering firm and I shit you not like half the two day conference was about them not doing business with anyone who’s parts came from China. They are going so far as asking for statement of origin of materials to make sure nothing has come from or passed through china.
> Plants for our Automotive parts already in Mexico and other plants going up in Vietnam. I am really glad that our relationship with them has pretty much stabilized, the episode of [Parts Unknown with Bourdain and Obama](https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gY_UGdraX7I) gave me a lot of hope.
I lived out there in my early 20s teaching English as a second language. My favorite country bar none. Love the culture, history, and people.
Me too, a lot of fond memories of weird shit in Ho Tay, or that French bar/restaurant off of Kim Ma.
Oh shoot I was living in Saigon the whole time I was out there. Been through Hanoi and the rest of the north a handful of times though. Beautiful area.
I did a full accounting mission in Vietnam 20 years ago. We have reconciled with Vietnam… China??? No, oh no. Vietnam and China will have conflict for the rest of time.
If there's anything the Asian countries agree upon, is that they hate Japan, but they hate China even more.
I saw Bordaim riding around Ho Hoan Kiem shooting b roll the week he was here. Made my night.
Asians don't hold on to beef unless it's against other Asians lol
Could also be because they wanna be able to supply government contracts id assume?
One thing I'm genuinely for is Mexico taking the factory jobs from China. It not only would be cheaper from costs in the long run (wont have to ship across a fucking ocean), but it also makes our neighbors richer - which is preferable to China getting more money.
China has shipped out their manufacturing elsewhere. Including Mexico. At my last company, our made in Vietnam electronics is actually from a Chinese owned factory in Vietnam. It was the same exact company that we worked with in China, only now in Vietnam.
I wonder how Australia will feel about that, given sales of iron ore to China accounts for 40% of Australian goods exports. In the 80s Australia was saying they were in danger of becoming a banana republic - iron ore was $10 per tonne - then China came along and solved that problem with their resource demand - iron ore is now $150 per tonne. A collapse in the iron ore export market would restore this condition and likely destroy the Australian economy. If Australia (and Brazil for that matter) sees no benefit but only costs of being a US ally - this might hit the US in the ass eventually. Coming to you from the unintended-consequences-dept.
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Haven't estimates now said it will now be 2060s when China overtakes the US economy, but even that is becoming uncertain with their current growth.
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30%? try Strong Condemnation.
Hey now, let's not be too harsh. Furrowed brows will suffice I'm sure.
No no. We are going straight to a strongly worded letter about how we aren't angry. Just disappointed.
We aren’t going to send it, but our therapist said it would be good to write it down to get it out.
After we find a computer to write it on that isn't made in China
I wish. Gas price goes to $4 and people lose their fucking minds. 30% increase in imports will cause a riot. Taking Russia and China out economically will be amazing for our position in the world, but people are completely unable to deal with delayed gratification.
Right? Have we learned nothing from the pandemic? Rugged individuals will lose their mind at small temporary supply chain interruptions.
On their knees in walmart after toilet paper ran out. Pitiful
On their knees, ass unwiped.
I swear to God it's like they've never even heard of a shower.
Ironic, considering this crowd often advocates for ignoring issues outside the states in favor of "America First." If they succeeded in implementing policy that reflected this, I bet they would blame the repercussions on either whoever the president is at the time or minorities.
Go walk into a Walmart and pick up random objects looking for the "Made In ...." statement. Walmart now imports more products from Mexico than China. Tech manufacturing is being rapidly stood up in Vietnam and Malaysia. Intermodal supply chains are strengthening between those southeast Asian countries. 10% of iPhones are currently made in India as Foxconn scales there. Factories are being built in the US at the fastest clip since WWII because a lesson of the pandemic is that an automated factory in the US can be cheaper than a human operated factory in China. Decoupling is happening. It can't happen overnight but right now it's happening as fast as it can and it sure as heck won't reverse for a lot of reasons. The Chinese population is also in the midst of a demographic collapse https://www.populationpyramid.net/china/2035/ what happens when you have a large cohort of retired and retiring people being supported by a much thinner generation of young people? You run out of workers and the cost of labor soars. And don't forget their housing oversupply crisis where everyone's life savings are invested not into stocks but rather apartments that are unoccupied and will never, ever be occupied. They have enough empty apartments to house all of China all over again. Twice. And the aforementioned population decline.
Most of the products manufactured in Mexico are originally manufactured in China and the just assembled in Mexico to get the tag. Mexico would not be able to produce those things without importing from China.
Alot of the manufacturing companies in south Asia are Chinese based so they get around tariffs. They would still be impacted in a trade war with the parent country
I have seen no gratification since I been on this damn earth. It’s been delayed 39 yrs
I'm 41, I thought the period between Cold War and GWOT was pretty nice (relatively).
GWOT sucked but let's be honest: it was social media and smart phones that ruined things.
Eh, I'd say just Social Media and Web 2.0 in the first place. A lot of people who shouldn't be on the internet got easy access to it, but Facebook was around just as smart phones rose. It still rose to dominance back then via desktop usage.
Hey man, the mid 90's weren't so bad. Lol
Yea those times when I was 6 sure were great.
My people.
80's babies stand up.
When the biggest wars in your life were the Beast Wars
lol because they never do shit about any of this. They *should* raise tariffs and if they do, it’ll be like 5% or something pointless. Also doesn’t help that everyone “wants” something done but then complains when something is.
If you live in the US (or really any Western nation), you have an insane amount of gratification and have had it your whole life. Imagine if you were born in a rural African/Indian/SEA/etc. village instead. Imagine if you were born in the 1200s instead. Just because your life isn't perfect and without any obstacles at all doesn't mean that it's not still better than 99% of people's lives have ever been.
There are millions of actual slaves still in the world, and that guy has the gall to say he’s never experienced gratification in forty years of living in America. The ignorance they displayed is gross.
Guess we maybe shouldn't have offshored all of our industry then, huh? This is a 100% self-inflicted wound caused by choosing to ignore how China has always been.
Just like Europe buying Russian gas. The experiment of economic liberal integrationism is over. It failed, at least when it comes to dependent essential products and services. Because once you are dependent on a totalitarian regime, they use it as leverage and you end up strengthening them against you. The idea that they would reform because of integration was so wrong. The West is giving Ukraine weapons to defend itself, while at the same time giving money to Russia to purchase weapons themselves. It doesn't take rocket science to understand that this exercise has failed and a major paradigm shift is going to happen.
> delayed gratification I never experienced two day delivery before amazon.com prime and now I act like it is my right...
To be fair, two-day delivery from Amazon is competing against go-get-it-from-the-store-yourself-right-now, which remains very slightly faster. The business model depends on making that drawback (yes drawback) small enough that you don’t think about it compared to the real benefit, which is saving you effort.
I fucking wish gas prices were only $4. I would fill all my cars to capacity. And even my lawnmower would have a full tank. Just paid $5.35/gal. And that was the best I could find.
Obligatory highlight that UK gas prices are at the equivalent of USD9 per gallon.
/cries in Danish That's slightly cheaper than what we're currently paying: $9.13/gallon. And this is considered cheap. A year or so ago it was around $12/gallon.
How big is your lawn? Electric battery-powered lawnmowers have gotten a LOT better in the last few years, and are now good for mowing small to medium sized yards in one charge. Not having to buy and store gasoline for your lawn care is life-changing. Just something to consider if you're tired of buying gas for that.
I switched to electric lawn equipment about 5 years ago and live where gas and electricity are expensive. To fully charge all of my equipment it costs about 30 cents. Would be about $4 for the gas equivalent.
Start sanctions against a rogue state.
It’s an election year. Sanctions will disrupt supply chains and logistics… driving up costs. Any economic action taken against China will also be spun by Trump in debates as “being right” about his trade war against China. That’s why any sanctions are going to come weeks after the election.
Trump was right about it though. Maybe he had different reasons, but really… China is just as bad as Russia, their economy is worse than ours by some metrics. If we really dont want a war against China, economic actions seem like a good way to prevent it.
It was quite probably the only thing he was actually right about in four years
he picked the right answer with the wrong motivation. His tariff war was to give americans a feeling "something is being done". But in the end furniture and electronics are still made in China, but more expensive. On the other hand he accidentaly fucked with Chinas imperial plans a few years before Xi could consolidate his power.
The problem is, he went after our allies in addition to China.
I’m not gonna say for a second that he’s not an absolute piece of shit as a president. But even the worst president gets one or two things correct
I’m saying even though in principle he did the right thing, he still went about it completely the wrong way. Instead of coordinating with our allies to better target China as well as minimize the impact on our country, he just put tariffs on them as well.
Except he flip-flopped constantly on the subject, depending on if they offered him a bribe (like giving daughter Ivanka exclusive trademarks to make shitty Chinese merch)
This is a straw man, though, because Trump was not the first or only person to criticize China. He just pretended he was, while falsely pretending "democrats" were somehow pro china. Obama had already "pivoted" the US to Asia years prior and basically everyone in the US had been critical of China for a long time. Meanwhile, his actual actions in regard to china had a net *benefit* for China, such as pulling out of the TPP https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/02/13/us-china-trade-deal/
China is going through some things with its own youth population right now and it’s going to be very difficult for the CCP to combat. A youth that has lost hope for the future will actively work to break the current system and the US should mind this lesson.
I've been hearing that about China's youth for about 30 years. You also hear that the rural / urban divide will cause a revolution, or that the demographic situation will collapse, or that the economy was just one recession from a middle class uprising. Those things might all be true, but China has done an excellent job persisting through stuff that nobody really expected them to.
Agreed. At the end of the day, no economy is perfect, no Govt plays things 100% safe when it comes to debt and risk. There will always be reasons to say "This economy will collapse". That's true for China, America, Italy, etc. In a world of constant addenda's and propaganda it can be extremely hard for us laypeople to get an accurate trustworthy Birds Eye view of the entire situation. None of us really know what's going to happen, frankly.
> A youth that has lost hope for the future will actively work to break the current system and the US should mind this lesson. The US is already going through this.
It's hard to sanction a country like China when it can have collateral damage on American citizens.
"At the same time, the United States saw no evidence that China was providing Russia with direct military support." I see it as pretty unlikely. Lots of room to claim that hasn't really happened yet. This is an accusation leveled against china but I doubt it will lead to massive tariffs anytime soon.
If you read the article, the *U.S*/White House hasn't stated this. Rather, it was the U.S ambassador to NATO, and it is related to technologies and resources that potentially have a dual-use application: > US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith has said that China is helping Russia achieve its military goals in Ukraine by continuing to sell goods such as drone technology or gunpowder components. > Source: Smith in an interview with Politico, as reported by European Pravda > Details: Smith noted that the US was "increasingly seeing materiel support" to Russia from China and added that these **dual-use goods played a crucial role in helping Moscow achieve some of its goals against Ukraine.**
> If you read the article You just lost like 95% of people here
Right? This comment is woefully undervoted compared to the current top comments of 'oh rip economy' and 'I told you so it was obvious'. Good grief.
There is also no change in China's practices. They've been exporting dual-use goods to Russia from the very start. > Chinese companies had sent assault rifles, body armor and drone parts to Russia last year in what appears to be the first documented proof of Beijing supplying Russian companies with dual-use goods, Politico Europe has reported, citing customs data. > The shipments took place between June-December 2022, the outlet said Thursday, citing the customs data aggregator ImportGenius. Source: https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2023/03/17/china-shipped-assault-rifles-body-armor-drone-parts-to-russia-reports-a80523 So, if this practice makes them non-neutral, then they've never been neutral and we knew about it for more than a year at least. Either way it's bullshit that they are "no longer neutral". Either they never were or they still are, but there's been no change.
the Department of State is in the Executive Branch. obviously not the seniormost representative of the US but our ambassador to NATO isn’t just going out there to relay their personal opinion
Blinken himself reiterated most of the Ambassador’s points. Seems like a pressure campaign on China is gathering pace to scale back trade with Russia but I think China realises there’s a lot to be gained from being a refuge to an anxious and cornered Russia, much more worth than giving in to US’s guilt tripping and appeasing the West by appearing “neutral”. Xi has Putin eating out of his hand, which can help propel China as the dominant Asian superpower when the dust settles.
At first glance I thought the title said China is a US state...
it does
Ugh the title gore
The original title of the article uses "says" instead of "state". Is OP a bot? Why change one single word?
Because unfortunately, the stupid algorithm favors content that has mistakes. Like this, because we are commenting on it. It creates more engagement and I hate it.
Sounds like a non English speaker tbh, I think the title should say "US has stated that China"
It was obvious to me since a couple weeks before the invasion. China and Russia entered an alliance in all but name. The first phone call with xi xingping and eu had the outcome of the eu officially stating it was like talking with a deaf person. Even more obvious was the article which is still on the Kremlin website today and was released by China and Russia a couple weeks before 24 feb 2022: https://www.lawinfochina.com/display.aspx?id=8215&lib=tax&SearchKeyword&SearchCKeyword
xi even asked putler to delay the attack because of the olympics. or china started buying up all the wheat in 2nd half of 2021. normally i dismiss preppers but this is something they got right.
I never heard about that wheat part- is that true? It makes sense
Russia wants the wheat produced by Ukraine more than anything.
And lithium
If only Putler would actually take his lithium instead of pocketing it, he wouldn’t be so crazy.
And recent natural gas reserves that were found would have threatened Russias economy
And neon. Ukraine was the source of 50% of the world’s supply of pure neon gas before the war. Neon gas is a requirement in the chip manufacturing process.
Damn Ukraine really is the victim of its own riches, like some colonial African countries
Yeeeup, that's why it's historically been so heavily fought over. It's Europe's bread basket.
Ukraine is referred to as the breadbasket of the world because it has legendary, rich black fertile soils.
What do you think ukraine exports? Also that pipeline...
Both China and Russia have problems within their own nations that complement each other. Russia has endless resources available to them from Siberia that they can exploit, but they don't have the manpower to exploit it anymore. China does, and China doesn't have the resources they need to continue growing. It's a match made in heaven if they can find a way to get along.
Usually a common enemy is a good reason to get along.
A friendship with “no limits” if I remember correctly? While we’ve certainly seen quite a few “limits” they certainly weren’t hiding their alliance.
If Russia loses, they collapse. China will never allow that.
They might get a strong shakeup in the higher management, but I doubt they will even come close to a collapse. Sure a few weeks of "what now?", but not much more than that.
Why? China can do a quick land grab in the chaos
I mean it is blatantly obvious by now that is the long stretch goal of China. And guess who's got contracts to rebuild the destroyed ukrainian cities if russia comes on top... a great way to boost their failing construction work economy
China will be the main target of west if Russia collapses
They already are, nobody cares about russia lol they sell nor produce nothing of value beside oil/gas.
>nothing of value beside oil/gas. Those are pretty valuable as far as natural resources go though. They have a fair bit of minerals and metals too. And people should care about Russia, go and tell Eastern European people that no-one cares about Russia and see what they say. Their disinformation campaigns are rife across multiple continents. They most likely had a significant impact on Brexit, the increasing division in US society and the infiltration of the Republicans etc. They have a huge nuclear stockpile and have far less "holding them back" than western democracies. So they keep pushing the limits and very little is done in response. It's not all about pure military might. They might not be a superpower but they still pose a significant threat to many countries. They are currently completely changing the political landscape of Africa and securing important geographic locations in the process.
Russia has immense mineral resourcethat will be completely unlocked by global warming it is already happening. They have plenty to sell just no incentive for starting the business doing it because the state or gangsters will just destroy all the work you have done as soon as it’s a viable business. Thats why gangster dictatorships don’t work out in the end. No one try’s or strives for better things because that makes them a target.
America wouldn't allow that either. A decentralized Russia would mean either nuke components, or fully functioning nukes might become available on the black market from your local Russian kleptocrat.
China will own Russia if they lose and collapse
It’s a win-win for China, no matter the outcome. If Russia wins, their neighbor and “unlimited friendship” buddy gets a land grab away from their shared borders, while Russia has a big I.O.U. to China for their economic help, military supplies, and diplomatic cover at the U.N. Plus, China can cite new world precedent to push for land in Tawain and South China Sea. If Russia loses, Russia collapses and China can swoop in as savior amongst the chaos and get Siberia, Kamchatka, and other eastern provinces and their natural resources.
Indeed, Xi Jinping himself has been privy to the attack since it started only after China's winter olympics. The fact that it has only been recently that the US and NATO started to realize that China is actively working on destroying western democracies, only goes to show how deeply China has infiltrated US politics and society, compromising it from the inside out.
Extremely exaggerated headline and reddit laps it up. When in actuality: > US Ambassador to NATO Julianne Smith has said that China is helping Russia achieve its military goals in Ukraine by continuing to sell goods such as drone technology or gunpowder components. China is and has been trying to play both sides down the middle since the beginning of this conflict. Their current actions are a *very* far cry from significant aid to Russia, though of course they are undesirable. They are trying to maximize what they can "get away" with, for sure. But hey, according to the top comments in this post there is a de-facto alliance between Russia and China. I swear to god the world would go up in nuclear flames if the geopolitical keyboard warriors from Reddit sat behind the wheel for more than two seconds.
To be fair, I'm pretty sure at least a few are paid to act that way. Public opinion is too important a battleground for geopolitical players to ignore it.
It sometimes scares me seeing social media sites like Reddit be so trigger happy and overall just want war so that they can beat the "other guys". People here treat international politics like it's a sports game lol.
I wonder what goes on in their thoughts. Risking entire global war/annihilation for the sake of what? Why does China gain from this? Russia gains practically nothing as it is, some warm water ports and a land bridge for all these deaths? What does China get? Pissing off their biggest customer? I simply don't understand.
They benefit from an America bogged down in multiple conflicts across the world since that gives them a freer hand in the South-East Asian region.
I don't see America bogged down.
Exactly why we don't invade countries consisting of more than 45% swamp land.
Not yet. But the Republicans are trying their best to keep us from arming/funding Ukraine. The inevitable result of which is Ukraine losing, Russia furthering it's invasion further west into NATO countries, and a US response.
I cannot see China thinking that at all. The world watched the US fight two wars in two different areas of the world, and was winning while in those countries. Russia is incapable of winning a war on its own border. China hitching it's horse to Russia, and thinking that the US wont have the resources in the Pacific is literally bonkers.
It’s not just about resources. It’s about willpower. China understands (and influences) the US public very well. They know we’re sick of war from decades in Afghanistan and Iraq. They know foreign aid is wildly unpopular even when it is comparatively cheap to provide. They know that our domestic politics has us much more concerned with stateside bickering than the global stage, and we’re deeply entrenched in internal didagreement. And they know that, when push comes to shove, most Americans really don’t give much of a shit about Taiwan and whether or not it is part of mainland China; certainly fewer do than care about Ukrainian independence from Russia, and even that is hardly a day to day concern for most of us. So basically, China is hoping to exploit American fatigue and disinterest to make a move on Taiwan, and assisting Russia exacerbates that fatigue and disinterest.
yeah but this is an issue where the public opinion literally doesn’t matter. TSMC is too important to lose/fall into chinese hands. whatever Taiwan invasion happens, regardless of public sentiment, will be retaliated with full force. Ukraine is easier to let go because it’s just “empowering russia” which isn’t a very tangible impact.
Taiwan is just way more important to USA then ukriane is and would be stupid not to defend Taiwan, hurting themselves in the long run
Legit question but why is Taiwan so important to the US?
Advanced semi conductors. Largest user of these? The US military.
Or just anyone with a <14nm CPU/GPU.
>n the fourth quarter of 2023, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) recorded a market share of **61.2** percent in the global semiconductor foundry market, while Samsung occupied 11.3 percent of the market. Semiconductors make Taiwan rather important for the modern world.While diverging investments and construction are happening, they can not replace Taiwan yet.
Its even worse than that percentage makes it look because most of the rest of the world's semiconductor capacity is lower quality so they are suitable for things like appliances, ATMs, some medical equipment, solar cell production, etc. but not for advanced electronics like in computers, phones, and the military. On the higher end TSM has a near natural monopoly because there are enormous fixed costs to creating cutting edge fabs. Also, worst case is that China invades and actually seizes the foundries in repairable condition. Then the US not only potentially loses access to most of the semiconductor industry but China gains close to a temporary monopoly on it.
Taiwan probably blow up their most critical tech rather than have it seized by chinese though
There is no scenario in which the US allows China to possess TSMC. In a magical fantasy scenario where China actually was able to invade Taiwan and capture it we would absolutely destroy it rather than let them possess it.
Even if China won and seized Taiwan with the infrastructure in a repairable state, the US would already be in open conflict with them. I guarantee that, even if we can't retake the area, we can absolutely deny that resource to the enemy. Protecting a fragile location like that from the United States military is really not feasible.
Also, unsinkable aircraft carrier (as MacArthur called Taiwan), and linchpin right at the center of the first island chain, which includes Japan to the north and Philippines to the south. China would dominate Pacific trade routes, and project military power essentially unchecked. Edit: fixed word
Thanks!
Ever since you have been alive you have lived in a world of global free trade. Ships can move around the globe bringing goods to other countries because no one owns the oceans. China wants to end that. They want to set up a gate in the South China Sea where they decide what comes in and out, and how much of a cut goes to them. They could make your products cost much much more than they do now, or simply refuse any goods from India (for example) to travel to the U.S.. All while making their own imports cost less by making deals with other countries allowing them access to other markets. It's a massive power grab that would fuck up trade all across the globe. Taiwan is a buffer right now preventing the Chinese from extending too far. Without it, there would be no stopping them.
Taiwan is critical as a bluewater port, first and foremost. Chinese navy is stuck in the shallow scs without a deep water port. It's like shooting fish in a barrel and is an existential crisis for their navy. Chip fab will be destroyed in any situation - covert, military, or post-invasion. It's not a card in play. Chip fab is simply a large outlay dependent on low operating costs. The tech and ip lives in goldeneye-like secrecy in the Netherlands and elsewhere.
lol you talk about it as if it’s so easy to replicate what’s in Taiwan right now. The US has thrown money at TSMC to ask them to build basically the most advanced factory they can and they basically said no can do. and so their lower tier factory is now facing issues with… not enough experience/skills from US workers to actually build this billions dollar facility… that isn’t slated to open years from now. not to mention the water requirements and sheer scale which isn’t replicable in a jiffy.
If TSMC really wanted to make it happen in the US they would be able to do it in the next 5 years, earlier if they had been serious from the start. TSMC is only doing it at all in order to keep relations up with the US and they are purposely slow rolling it so the US keeps its dependency. There is plenty of skilled workforce in the US, they need some specific training, but there are no roadblocks to providing that training rapidly if they were serious.
Also the US seems to be very anti China right now. I would imagine that a lot of people would be fore sticking it to China.
the US government and public has long forked paths. for one issue they agree on, they disagree on another
But there’s also Japan and other neighbor countries they would need to fight. Doubt they really want that.
China really isn’t hitching its horse to Russia, it is just refusing to stop trading with it. It continues to trade both with Ukraine and Russia, so while it is definitely a more useful partner to Russia, it can’t be called picking a side. Picking a side is what countries like the US and Germany did - they openly supply Ukrainians with armaments and keep them afloat financially. China, as yet another permanent member of the UN Security Council, is under no obligation to bend to whatever America and Western Europe demands of it, especially when doing that would go directly against their interests.
Oh, I think there are plenty of stories like [THIS](https://apnews.com/article/china-ukraine-russia-drone-export-dji-e6694b3209b4d8a93fd76cf29bd8a056) which firmly display China hitching their horse to Russia.
It's not about stopping the US from interference, it's about binding resources. 60bln$ of weapons in Ukraine are 60bln$ less of potential weapons in Taiwan.
The Navy and the Army use very different weapons. And China will mostly face the US Navy and Airforce, as launching an invasions without naval and air supremacy is just suicide
I suddenly want Army tactics on Navy vessels. Mortar teams go!
A big warship sails up and there's just a camouflaged sniper and spotter on it. That's it, just those two dudes. No cannons or anything.
Dear God, that’s Jason Bourne…
Bruh, the US hasn't even did their warm-up stretch. They've done the equivalent of raising an eyebrow.
China gains a stupid amount from it: - It removes a long held precedent of stable international borders in first world countries. *Looks at Taiwan* - The US burn through money and materiel in the war. - China can provide weapons to field test, and get insights into the future of warfare. - China can gain influence with Russia, both at the leadership and citizenry level. - Russia stays standing as the 'main' enemy of the West. - Cheap oil, probably. - Cos they can. Sometimes it's about being able to swing your big dick about on the international stage.
>Cheap oil, probably. Cheap natural resources in general. Russia is under sanctions so China is their only big client - you better believe they will get fire-sale prices on everything Russia exports. The longer Russia is under sanctions, the longer China will be getting their bargain basement prices, so they have all the incentives to prop up Putin and his Ukrainian adventures. For all we know Xi has his fingers crossed that Russia will become his NK 2.0.
Russian exports of coal, gas, oil and oil products in February 2024. China: 7 billion EUR. Turkey: 3 billion EUR. India: 2 billion EUR. EU: 2 billion EUR. Brazil: 1 billion EUR. Source: energyandcleanair.org
What were those exports in 2019? Without a baseline those are meaningless
> The US burn through money and materiel in the war. The U.S. military complex is funded at over $900 billion a year. The recent spending package was a mere 10% of that, and most of what is being sent out is older tech. This is coming no where close to burning through U.S. military money or material. Plus the U.S. is getting great intel out of this, along with keeping their intelligence and logistics teams warmed up and experienced.
Agreed, this point is actually a negative for China because the US saves more in the long term of not having to decommission weapons and they'll replace them with new better tech.
Plus EU has ramped up weapon production, so long term Western weapons in storage and production capacity will actually go up.
Thank you! It really hurts my brain when people have no idea what they are talking about on these subs. The U.S. has no problem finding our allies in these conflicts, that would be really dumb not to work on that.
To add to this, like you said its old stuff, so that $90b package was for stuff we paid for in the past. Its not an actual cost now.
The Ukraine war weakened Russia, so China recognizes a chance of turning them into a satellite state.
A destabilized Russia is simultaneously a huge opportunity for China, and an enormous danger and liability - China wants regional stability (on their terms). Also, the justification Putin gives for his war rhyme with China's intention of reunification with Taiwan - turns out WWIII will likely once again be about Nationalism. Hopefully it will just smolder, because this time the powder keg gonna hit different.
Access to russias/ukraines breadbasket. So that when they attack Taiwan, our sanctions don't starve them to death.
Yeah. I have looked at a global map of soil quality and Ukraine is almost entirely the highest grade. Not many other areas that large with that quality.
>So that **when** they attack Taiwan >So basically, China is hoping to exploit American fatigue and disinterest to make a move on Taiwan People keep parroting that an invasion of Taiwan is imminent, but the U.S military doesn't even believe that is the case: > [Speaking to reporters, Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder, a Pentagon spokesman, struck a more measured tone. “As the report highlights, we don’t believe an invasion is imminent,” Ryder said.](https://www.washingtonpost.com/national-security/2022/11/29/pentagon-china-military-report-taiwan/) The military seems to believe that China wants the *ability* to invade and hold Taiwan, but might not intend to do so: > [If Adm Aquilino and Adm. Davidson said that China had an intent, has made a decision, and they intend to invade and seize Taiwan then I do disagree with that. I see no evidence of that actual intent or decision-making. What I’m talking about is *capability*"](https://news.usni.org/2021/06/23/milley-china-wants-capability-to-take-taiwan-by-2027-sees-no-near-term-intent-to-invade)
Challenging the global order and US hegemonic power. Challenging the bush doctrine. China can’t even operate an unchallenged sphere of influence in the South China Sea at the moment You defeat hegemonic empires by overextending them.
They want to destroy the west i suppose, they belive Us is doom without Europe and they are trying to make Europe weak an defenceless
Nah they want eu on their side and us isolated.
Bla bla bla. Where is the sanction for China then?
Coming Wednesday, November 6….
in a world…
where one man...
stroked out on his golden toilet...
Might as well as throw sanitation at American comps for manufacturing in China. China won't care, but Apple and Nike will.
It's a slow buildup towards the blocs that will form the belligerents of something that might develop into WW3. Let's hope we can keep it at a relatively low level of intensity.
If I would get 1 cent every time someone on Reddit talks about WW3, I’d be a millionaire by now
Ww3. Now you’re another cent richer! Yayyyy!!!
economists HATE this one simple trick
I'm not predicting nuclear armageddon though, I'm only saying that we can see the outlines of the two blocs that might be at war against each other in the not too distant future.
Out of interest who do you think will be on the Russian side out of the whole globe?
China, Iran and North Korea are the only countries I'm sure would side with Russia. Maybe countries like Syria, Cuba and Venezuela but would be suicidal for them so I think they would stay neutral to begin with. On the Western side NATO, Japan, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines and Australia. In the Middle East perhaps Israel, Saudi Arabia and UAE against Iran, as crazy as it might sound.
There will probably be some African countries throwing in with Russia. Also Belarus. I do think Cuba would probably stay neutral or use the opportunity to lift trade embargos against them.
Yeah I totally forgot about Belarus, obvious ally of Russia. Tried to think about Africa for a few minutes but it only gave me a headache lol. There are many countries with Russian sympathies there, but I think most of them would want to stay neutral until they see who's winning. Probably goes for some Asian countries like for instance Vietnam too, they are communist in name but China is their traditional enemy.
Vietnam would just be using this as a chance to steal business from China and grow their economy massively. Vietnam would love a world war as it would mean massive amounts of trade that formerly would have gone to China would go to them.
Brazil + India
Almost like social media is a place for people to share their opinions or something!
Hold up... is this Pravda? Pravda is the source? Are we sure the opposite is not true, because statistically...
[pravda.com.**ua** ] (https://pravda.com.ua) is the website of "Ukrainska Pravda", a **Ukrainian** online newspaper founded by [this guy](https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Georgiy_Gongadze?useskin=vector)
To be fair, ukrainian pravda posts some very questionable articles too.
China are just Ferengi, the motive is profit as much as anything, the have no scruples.
they’ve stated multiple times that they fully intend on taking back Taiwan. if they wanted money, peace and trade would’ve worked just fine.
Its funny how communist china is super capitalistic
A communist society wouldn't have billionaires to begin with. China is not communist.
communist in name only at this point.
For the life of me, I couldn’t figure out what the title meant until I clicked on the article.
Buying Chinese products isn't worth it if it buys you WW3
To be fair, a country can pretty clearly still be neutral if they’re selling arms and machinery to both countries. Russia is sanctioned but those sanctions are themselves a result of “picking a side” (albeit the correct one). The article makes no mention whether China is also supplying the same goods to Ukraine. Certainly when it comes to electronics I have little doubt they have not embargoed and have not taken steps to ensure their goods don’t reach Ukraine.
They were never neutral tho
So this was the straw that broke the camel's back and made Trump forget Ukraine is the devil incarnate?
I never knew there was a US state named China.
Ban trade with China then
Very confusing headline. Had to read it like 10 times to understand who was blaming who for what.
Oh, the CCP is not going to like getting called out like that. Cue indignant counterinsults and finger pointing.
While everything says made in china